The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Identifieur interne : 000268 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000267; suivant : 000269The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Auteurs : Matteo Chinazzi [États-Unis] ; Jessica T. Davis [États-Unis] ; Marco Ajelli [Italie] ; Corrado Gioannini [Italie] ; Maria Litvinova [Italie] ; Stefano Merler [Italie] ; Ana Pastore Y Piontti [États-Unis] ; Kunpeng Mu [États-Unis] ; Luca Rossi [Italie] ; Kaiyuan Sun [États-Unis] ; Cécile Viboud [États-Unis] ; Xinyue Xiong [États-Unis] ; Hongjie Yu [République populaire de Chine] ; M Elizabeth Halloran [États-Unis] ; Ira M. Longini [États-Unis] ; Alessandro Vespignani [États-Unis]Source :
- Science (New York, N.Y.) [ 1095-9203 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in Mainland China, but has a more marked effect at the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
DOI: 10.1126/science.aba9757
PubMed: 32144116
Affiliations:
- Italie, République populaire de Chine, États-Unis
- Floride, Massachusetts, Piémont, Washington (État)
- Turin
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Davis</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ajelli, Marco" sort="Ajelli, Marco" uniqKey="Ajelli M" first="Marco" last="Ajelli">Marco Ajelli</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Trento</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gioannini, Corrado" sort="Gioannini, Corrado" uniqKey="Gioannini C" first="Corrado" last="Gioannini">Corrado Gioannini</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>ISI Foundation, Turin</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Turin</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Piémont</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Litvinova, Maria" sort="Litvinova, Maria" uniqKey="Litvinova M" first="Maria" last="Litvinova">Maria Litvinova</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>ISI Foundation, Turin</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Turin</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Piémont</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Merler, Stefano" sort="Merler, Stefano" uniqKey="Merler S" first="Stefano" last="Merler">Stefano Merler</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Trento</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pastore Y Piontti, Ana" sort="Pastore Y Piontti, Ana" uniqKey="Pastore Y Piontti A" first="Ana" last="Pastore Y Piontti">Ana Pastore Y Piontti</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mu, Kunpeng" sort="Mu, Kunpeng" uniqKey="Mu K" first="Kunpeng" last="Mu">Kunpeng Mu</name><affiliation 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Sun</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, NIH</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>NIH</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, NIH</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>NIH</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiong, Xinyue" sort="Xiong, Xinyue" uniqKey="Xiong X" first="Xinyue" last="Xiong">Xinyue Xiong</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Hongjie" sort="Yu, Hongjie" uniqKey="Yu H" first="Hongjie" last="Yu">Hongjie Yu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M Elizabeth Halloran</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M" last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. a.vespignani@northeastern.edu ilongini@ufl.edu.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vespignani, Alessandro" sort="Vespignani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Vespignani A" first="Alessandro" last="Vespignani">Alessandro Vespignani</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA. a.vespignani@northeastern.edu ilongini@ufl.edu.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.Y.)</title><idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in Mainland China, but has a more marked effect at the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Italie</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Floride</li><li>Massachusetts</li><li>Piémont</li><li>Washington (État)</li></region><settlement><li>Turin</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Massachusetts"><name sortKey="Chinazzi, Matteo" sort="Chinazzi, Matteo" uniqKey="Chinazzi M" first="Matteo" last="Chinazzi">Matteo Chinazzi</name></region><name sortKey="Davis, Jessica T" sort="Davis, Jessica T" uniqKey="Davis J" first="Jessica T" last="Davis">Jessica T. Davis</name><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M Elizabeth Halloran</name><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M" last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><name sortKey="Mu, Kunpeng" sort="Mu, Kunpeng" uniqKey="Mu K" first="Kunpeng" last="Mu">Kunpeng Mu</name><name sortKey="Pastore Y Piontti, Ana" sort="Pastore Y Piontti, Ana" uniqKey="Pastore Y Piontti A" first="Ana" last="Pastore Y Piontti">Ana Pastore Y Piontti</name><name sortKey="Sun, Kaiyuan" sort="Sun, Kaiyuan" uniqKey="Sun K" first="Kaiyuan" last="Sun">Kaiyuan Sun</name><name sortKey="Vespignani, Alessandro" sort="Vespignani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Vespignani A" first="Alessandro" last="Vespignani">Alessandro Vespignani</name><name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name><name sortKey="Xiong, Xinyue" sort="Xiong, Xinyue" uniqKey="Xiong X" first="Xinyue" last="Xiong">Xinyue Xiong</name></country><country name="Italie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ajelli, Marco" sort="Ajelli, Marco" uniqKey="Ajelli M" first="Marco" last="Ajelli">Marco Ajelli</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Gioannini, Corrado" sort="Gioannini, Corrado" uniqKey="Gioannini C" first="Corrado" last="Gioannini">Corrado Gioannini</name><name sortKey="Litvinova, Maria" sort="Litvinova, Maria" uniqKey="Litvinova M" first="Maria" last="Litvinova">Maria Litvinova</name><name sortKey="Merler, Stefano" sort="Merler, Stefano" uniqKey="Merler S" first="Stefano" last="Merler">Stefano Merler</name><name sortKey="Rossi, Luca" sort="Rossi, Luca" uniqKey="Rossi L" first="Luca" last="Rossi">Luca Rossi</name></country><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Yu, Hongjie" sort="Yu, Hongjie" uniqKey="Yu H" first="Hongjie" last="Yu">Hongjie Yu</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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